Matt’s Oscar Predictions


The Oscars are tonight and as usual we’ll be live blogging them! Just so they’re on the record ahead of time here are my predictions for each category.

Best Live Action Short

  • Ave Maria
  • Day One
  • Everything Will Be Okay
  • Shok
  • Stutterer

I have not seen any of these movies so I have no horse in this particular race.

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Son of Saul
  • Mustang
  • A War
  • Embrace of the Serpent
  • Theeb

I have not seen any of these movies so I have no horse in this particular race.

Best Documentary Short

  • Body Team 12
  • Chau, Beyond the Lines
  • Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
  • A Girl in the River
  • Last Day of Freedom

I have not seen any of these movies so I have no horse in this particular race.

Best Documentary Feature

  • Amy
  • Cartel Land
  • The Look of Silence
  • What Happened, Miss Simone?
  • Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Should Win: The Look of Silence, because it’s an important film for our time Will Win: Amy, because it’s a look back at a talented artist who passed before her time, and the Oscars eat that shit up.

Best Animated Short

  • Bear Story
  • Prologue
  • Sanjay’s Super Team
  • We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
  • World of Tomorrow

I haven’t seen any of these, but I would really like to be able to say “Academy Award Winner Don Hertzfeldt” so let’s go with World of Tomorrow.

Best Animated Feature

  • Inside Out
  • Anomalisa
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie
  • Boy and the World
  • When Marnie Was There

Should Win: Inside Out.
Will Win: Inside Out.

Anomalisa is also great and it would be something to see an R-Rated film take best animated feature. Side note: I would seriously love to see Shaun the Sheep take this.

Best Sound Editing

  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • The Martian
  • Sicario
  • The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max
Will Win: Mad Max, because the big popular action movie tends to win the technical awards (which it deserves!) when it seems likely it’ll be overlooked in the big prestigious categories. This will be a trend.

Best Sound Mixing

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: Mad Max
Will Win: Mad Max

Best Original Song

  • “Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
  • “Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
  • “Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
  • “Simple Song #3,” Youth
  • “Writing’s On the Wall,” Spectre

Should Win: Anything but “Writing’s On The Wall”
Will Win: “Til It Happens to You”. I don’t actually know this ong, but the Lady Gaga sung, Dianne Warren co-written thing seems like a lock. Plus then Lady Gaga will only be a Tony awards away from going full EGOT.

Best Original Score

  • Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
  • Carter Burwell, Carol
  • John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
  • Jóhann Jóhannsson, Sicario

Should Win: Ennio Morricone, he’s a living legend and the score to Hateful Eight is brillaint.
Will Win: Ennio Morricone.

Best Editing

  • The Big Short
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • Spotlight
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: Mad Max
Will Win: Mad Max. Though, I could see this one going to The Revenant, as there are some pretty seamless cuts in there.

Best Visual Effects

  • Ex Machina
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: Mad Max for it’s perfect blend of practical and digital effects.
Will Win: Mad Max, for those reasons.

Best Makeup/Hair Styling

  • The Revenant
  • The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared
  • Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Mad Max
Will Win: Mad Max

Best Production Design

  • The Danish Girl
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Bridge of Spies
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max
Will Win: Mad Max

Best Costume Design

  • Sandy Powell, Carol
  • Sandy Powell, Cinderella
  • Jacqueline West, The Revenant
  • Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl
  • Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Jenny Beavan, for refining the apocalyptic designs we grew up with.
Will Win: Probably Cinderella, because the Oscars eat that shit up.

Best Cinematography

  • Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
  • Edward Lachman, Carol
  • Roger Deakins, Sicario
  • John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight

Should Win: TIE between John Seale and Roger Deakins, because Mad Max is shot amazingly, and getting in between all the cars and explosions, and everything else is an insane feat and because Roger Deakins is Roger Deakins. Just give it to him already.
Will Win: Probably Lubezki. The Reventant is technically gorgeous, and he may set a record (sice he won last year (Birdman) and the year before (Gravity).

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Drew Goddard, The Martian
  • Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
  • Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short
  • Phyllis Nagy, Carol
  • Emma Donoghue, Room

Should Win: Drew Goddard, because The Martian is a great ensemble piece full of heart and humour.
Will Win: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, because The Big Short is otherwise overlooked, and is great in it’s own right.

Best Original Screenplay

  • Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
  • Matt Charman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
  • Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge, and Alan Wenkus, Straight Outta Compton
  • Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, and Josh Cooley, Inside Out
  • Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Should Win: Alex Garland for forcing us to examine our own sexism.
Will Win: Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer because the movie is great and will likely otherwise be overlooked.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  • Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
  • Rooney Mara, Carol
  • Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  • Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh, for being allowed to run away with every scene of The Hateful Eight, and revel in playing the kind of lunatic psychopath that anyone rarely gets to play.
Will Win: Kate Winslet, for being the perfect foil to Fassbender’s Jobs.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Christian Bale, The Big Short
  • Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
  • Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Should Win: Sylvester Stallone, because he’s great in Creed.
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, because he is great in Creed.

This one is a crowded field. Second choice, Mark Ruffalo.

Best Actress

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol
  • Brie Larson, Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Should Win: Brie Larson
Will Win: Brie Larson

Saoirse Ronan is also fantastic in Brooklyn.

Best Actor

  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
  • Matt Damon, The Martian
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Should Win: Matt Damon, because his portrayal of Mark Watney is subtle, nuanced, genuine, relatable, and amazing.
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, because he practically killed himself to get it.

I would also give it to Fassbender before I gave it to Leo.

Best Director

  • Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
  • Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
  • Adam McKay, The Big Short
  • George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Should Win: George Miller, for crafting his masterpiece.
Will Win: Ugh, probably Iñárritu. Kinda surprosed that Ridley Scott isn’t on the list.

Best Picture

  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Actually a tougher call than I would think. THe Martian won best comedy (ugh) at the Globes, The Revenant won best drama, but The Big Short won the PGA award. Probably The Revenant though Hollywod eats that shit up.